3. RESEARCH PAST TRENDS

This just makes sense. What's the voters liked in the past, they'll probably keep on liking. For instance, a general rule of thumb is that whichever movie got the most nominations is going to win best picture, and only movies that win best director nominations will have a shot at best picture. Yes, there are exceptions to these rules (e.g., in 1991, Bugsy received more nominations than winner Silence of the Lambs, and in 1989, winner Driving Miss Daisy did not receive a nomination for best director), but these exceptions are very rare, and should only be overlooked when the buzz says otherwise. These are the two most important rules in choosing a best picture winner.

However, there are other rules-of-thumb that you can use, based on Oscar's history. We suggest that you remember the following:

Almost all nominees and winners are movies released AFTER September

Silence of the Lambs and Forrest Gump were exceptions to this rule, but as a whole, pick the more recent movies. They are fresher in voters' minds. Just like peas and carrots, Jenny.

Actors get brownie points for gimmicky and flashy roles.

Playing someone that is handicapped, retarded, a prostitute, a gimp, a drag queen, a deaf-mute amputee or an Eskimo is often rewarded at Oscar time, especially in the supporting categories. From Patty Duke (Helen Keller in The Miracle Worker) to Mira Sorvino (a prostitute in Mighty Aphrodite), voters love unusual characters. Hilary Swank won the Best Actress award for 1999's Boys Don't Cry, where she played a woman in an "sexual identity crisis" living life as a man. It doesn't get much flashier than that.

Comebacks usually get rewarded

Anyone who is old and dying and/or made a comeback gets special sympathy points. It doesn't always work out (poor Lauren Bacall and Burt Reynolds), but it's a good cue to use when in doubt about everything else.

Period movies win the costume and art/set design awards

The movies that impress the voters most in these categories take place in the past, preferably in a foreign country. Again, there are exceptions, such as The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, but that movie had such outrageously loud costumes, that it may as well have been a period piece (we'll wait until you get the joke… drag queens… "period" piece…). OK, you get the idea: the flashier, the better. Those voters ain't subtle. Most of them are old, blind and incontinent.

Whatever wins the best picture award will probably win a screenplay award too

Not always, but it usually stands that the best movie of the year was also the best written.

The song that you have heard the most on the radio will win best song

This is one of Newton's laws. It is never broken.

Children's movies never win anything except music awards

They do get nominated. E.T., Babe, Beauty and the Beast were all fine movies, but won relatively little. That's because kids' movies are not taken seriously by the Academy, so they rarely win outside stuff.

Look at what's won over the past couple years

Here are the films that won best picture over the past 10 years:

1999- American Beauty
1998- Shakespeare In Love
1997- Titanic
1996- The English Patient
1995- Braveheart

1994- Forrest Gump
1993- Schindler's List
1992- Unforgiven
1991- Silence of the Lambs
1990- Dances With Wolves

Of these 10 films, 8 of them are big epic-y movies (including 1992 through 1998), and 8 of them primarily take place in the past (Silence of the Lambs and American Beauty are the only exceptions). What does this tell you? Pick something epic-y that takes place in the past.