It's a wonderful time for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who will win?

The best part about watching the Academy Awards (well, besides taking a tequila shot every time Joan Rivers mentions "Vera Wang") is trying to predict who will win. Many people, in fact, take part in the tradition that is known as an "Oscar pool." An Oscar pool is not a pool that belongs to Oscar. It is a form of gambling, much like a football pool, only the people involved are more artsy-fartsy and educated. You basically bet on which film/actor you think is going to win, and the one who predicts the most winners correctly wins the pot.

Predict the Oscars? Who cares? Well, if the pot in your office Oscar pool reaches a couple hundred dollars, and you could win it simply by reading this article, then why not take a stab at it? If that didn't convince you, it's too late. You've already begun reading.

Right off the bat, let us make one thing clear: the most important element in winning an Oscar pool is to ignore your own opinions about who you think should win. Your opinions mean jack squat. You're not voting, so remember to not let your own thoughts invade the process. What should you make your predictions based on? Well, stop asking questions and keep reading.

1. LEARN ABOUT THE OSCARS

Before we get to the nitty-gritty, we should give you a brief history of the Awards of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences. First the earth cooled. Then the dinosaurs came, made sequels about eating small children, and died of shame from bad reviews and overblown special effects. Then a group of old actors, actresses, directors, and producers decided that they should give themselves awards every year for being beautiful and perfect. And so we reach today: the Academy Awards, given in the following areas of movie-making (at least, in March 2000):

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Original Song
Best Original Score
Best Animated Short Film Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Costume Design
Best Art/Set Direction
Best Sound
Best Sound Effects Editing
Best Visual Effects
Best Makeup
Best Documentary Feature
Best Live Action Short Film
Best Documentary Short Subject

In most of these categories, five people or films are nominated (some categories have only three nominees, but the number can change from year to year).

You are probably wondering, "Who nominates these people and films?" The answer is members of the Academy. "Who are these members of the Academy?" you ask. Well, its complicated (and if you don't already know, you're never going to be one). Suffice it to say that they are members of the industry.

The more important question is, "How does the nomination process work?" Well, the Academy is divided into branches (acting, directing, editing, writing, sound, and music). Every member belongs to one and ONLY one branch. So Barbra Streisand had to decide a long time ago whether she wanted to be included in the music, acting, or directing branch (she chose acting).

In January, each member of the Academy receives a ballot and nominates people/films only for their branch. Music branch members nominate people for song and score, while actors only nominate actors. An exception is made for a few categories (documentary, live action short, animated, and foreign). For these categories, a pre-selected panel picks the nominees. Then a very reputable accounting firm with damn sexy accountants tabulates the votes. In mid-February, the top 5 nominees are announced in each category, and at the end of March at an awards ceremony, each winner is announced. The ultimate Oscar winner for each category is based upon a vote of the ENTIRE membership, not only the specific branch (unlike the nominating procedure). You still with us? Just think of it this way: if actors can figure this all out, you sure can too.

What difference does this make? Well, if you're gonna predict the Oscars, it helps to know who is doing the voting and how people got nominated in the first place. Most of the voters are old and feeble. And it's not totally a popularity contest, nor does it necessarily have to do with how much money the movie made. Rather, it's a combination of popularity, box office, artistic achievement, luck, sentimentality, bribes, and most importantly, marketing. And since actors make up the biggest branch, try to think like an actor throughout this whole process. Read this SYW in a large, booming voice. Praise the aptitudes of Pacino and Streep. Clear your head of any original thoughts. You're an actor now, so act like one.

2. LISTEN TO THE BUZZ

The best indicator of who is going to win a particular Oscar is to listen to the buzz. This does not mean that you should listen to astronaut Buzz Aldrin, action figure Buzz Lightyear, or the buzzing of a bumblebee. Rather, you have to get a sense of who's "hot." Take Gwenyth Paltrow in 1998. She started popping up all over the place, and people had great things to say about her movie. She burst into movie stardom. In short, she had the buzz. Compare that to fellow nominee Fernanda Montenegro. Who? Exactly.

So how do you go about figuring out who has the buzz? Well, we suggest the following:

Read trade magazines

The Hollywood Reporter and Variety (especially Army Archerd's column) are great resources to see who people are talking and buzzing about. Another great magazine to read (though it's technically not a trade) is Entertainment Weekly. In 1998, EW correctly predicted 68% of the winners.

Visit prediction Internet sites

The Internet is a great place to find predictions, because there are a lot of losers out there who have nothing better to do than make elaborate predictions about whether the best Animated Short will be won by a piece of clay or a talking rock. Now, one site is not necessarily better than another, but after looking at a bunch of them, you'll definitely get a sense of who people are talking about. By far, the best site to visit is the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board. On this site, people write in every day and discuss the Academy Awards. The actors/films that people are talking about the most are those with the most buzz.

It's important to visit these sites, because the people who run them will do the research that you don't want to do yourself. They read all of the articles, watch all the talk shows, and read all the critics' columns. And while they can't get dates, they can predict awards.

See who's been winning the pre-Oscar awards

The Academy is not the only organization that recognizes film excellence. There are other groups that give out awards, and they do it way before Oscar time. So by finding out what other groups like, you'll be able to get a sense of what has generally been accepted as "good" and what is a "bomb." Some of the groups that give out awards relatively early (meaning, December) are the Chicago Film Critics, the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics, and the Los Angeles Film Critics. However, the best indicator (as of recent years) of who will win an Oscar is the Golden Globe Awards. While the people who select the nominees and winners are members of the foreign press, and the group contains less than 100 people, it has nonetheless become eerily accurate in predicting both nominees and winners (regardless of the group's bizarre infatuation with Sharon Stone). To see who's been winning the pre-Oscar awards, periodically check the Internet site Awards Heaven, which keeps a running list of who's gotten what.

3. RESEARCH PAST TRENDS

This just makes sense. What's the voters liked in the past, they'll probably keep on liking. For instance, a general rule of thumb is that whichever movie got the most nominations is going to win best picture, and only movies that win best director nominations will have a shot at best picture. Yes, there are exceptions to these rules (e.g., in 1991, Bugsy received more nominations than winner Silence of the Lambs, and in 1989, winner Driving Miss Daisy did not receive a nomination for best director), but these exceptions are very rare, and should only be overlooked when the buzz says otherwise. These are the two most important rules in choosing a best picture winner.

However, there are other rules-of-thumb that you can use, based on Oscar's history. We suggest that you remember the following:

Almost all nominees and winners are movies released AFTER September

Silence of the Lambs and Forrest Gump were exceptions to this rule, but as a whole, pick the more recent movies. They are fresher in voters' minds. Just like peas and carrots, Jenny.

Actors get brownie points for gimmicky and flashy roles.

Playing someone that is handicapped, retarded, a prostitute, a gimp, a drag queen, a deaf-mute amputee or an Eskimo is often rewarded at Oscar time, especially in the supporting categories. From Patty Duke (Helen Keller in The Miracle Worker) to Mira Sorvino (a prostitute in Mighty Aphrodite), voters love unusual characters. Hilary Swank won the Best Actress award for 1999's Boys Don't Cry, where she played a woman in an "sexual identity crisis" living life as a man. It doesn't get much flashier than that.

Comebacks usually get rewarded

Anyone who is old and dying and/or made a comeback gets special sympathy points. It doesn't always work out (poor Lauren Bacall and Burt Reynolds), but it's a good cue to use when in doubt about everything else.

Period movies win the costume and art/set design awards

The movies that impress the voters most in these categories take place in the past, preferably in a foreign country. Again, there are exceptions, such as The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, but that movie had such outrageously loud costumes, that it may as well have been a period piece (we'll wait until you get the joke… drag queens… "period" piece…). OK, you get the idea: the flashier, the better. Those voters ain't subtle. Most of them are old, blind and incontinent.

Whatever wins the best picture award will probably win a screenplay award too

Not always, but it usually stands that the best movie of the year was also the best written.

The song that you have heard the most on the radio will win best song

This is one of Newton's laws. It is never broken.

Children's movies never win anything except music awards

They do get nominated. E.T., Babe, Beauty and the Beast were all fine movies, but won relatively little. That's because kids' movies are not taken seriously by the Academy, so they rarely win outside stuff.

Look at what's won over the past couple years

Here are the films that won best picture over the past 10 years:

1999- American Beauty
1998- Shakespeare In Love
1997- Titanic
1996- The English Patient
1995- Braveheart

1994- Forrest Gump
1993- Schindler's List
1992- Unforgiven
1991- Silence of the Lambs
1990- Dances With Wolves

Of these 10 films, 8 of them are big epic-y movies (including 1992 through 1998), and 8 of them primarily take place in the past (Silence of the Lambs and American Beauty are the only exceptions). What does this tell you? Pick something epic-y that takes place in the past.

4. LEARN HOW THE PUBLICITY MACHINE WORKS

Unfortunately, Oscar winners are often chosen not because of the quality of work. Publicity and marketing campaigns play huge roles in who gets noticed and who doesn't, and studios will pour millions of dollars into Oscar campaigns. Why? Because it is often thought that major Oscar wins will translate into higher box office receipts or rental grosses, as well as giving the studio greater prestige and bragging rights. So many studios will do anything to get their film to win.

The master of the Oscar marketing campaign is Miramax. A subdivision of Disney, Miramax releases Disney's art-house film collection, which usually consists of smaller-budgeted but well-reviewed films. Recent examples have been Shakespeare in Love, Life Is Beautiful, Good Will Hunting, and Pulp Fiction. They go CRAZY for this Oscar crap. Mirimax's reputation is based upon its quality movies, and it advertises its quality by citing its multiple Oscar nominations and wins. For this reason, Mirimax spends obscene amounts of money on its Oscar campaigns. It will send copies of all of its movies to every single Academy member (even movies that are still in theaters), and send voters fancy publicity "tokens" (read: bribes). Anything that has Miramax attached to it must be taken seriously, and if you can't decide between two candidates, just go with the Miramax candidate. Even if you haven't heard much about the film, all of the voters have.

Not many other studios have this kind of money to put directly into their Oscar campaigns. They're more worried about putting their money into making more movies. As a rule of thumb, the more you've seen a nominee on a talk show or magazine cover, the more likely it is that the studio has put a lot of money behind into an Oscar campaign.

OK, so you now know about the categories and how the winners are chosen, you know about research, you know about the historical trends, and you know about the Miramax publicity monster. What does this all have to do with winning the Oscar pool? Well, taking everything into consideration, you now have a great idea of who to bet on. Some rules will contradict each other, but we never said we were gonna guarantee you a win. Where would the fun in that be?

To summarize…

BEST PICTURE
It has lots of buzz
It's the film with the most nominations.
It takes place in the past.
It came out after September.
It was nominated for best director.
The studio that made it has lots of money.

BEST ACTOR/SUPPORTING ACTOR/ACTRESS/SUPPORTING ACTRESS
It's an actor/actress with buzz.
(S)he had a disability or flashy quirk.
(S)he is making a comeback.

BEST DIRECTOR
(S)he has a film nominated in best picture.
(S)he has buzz.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN/SET DESIGN
It takes place in the past.
It takes place in another country.
It's as flashy and gaudy as possible.

BEST SONG
You heard it the most on the radio.

BEST SOUND/SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
It was the loudest.
It made the most money of all the nominees.

For all the others (cinematography, editing, special effects, etc.), just follow what the Internet boards have been saying, and where you feel the buzz lies.

Phew! Our job is now done. We hope you win loads of money and make your friends cry. Remember that the money is usually won by guessing the "smaller" categories, so don't discount those. We'll check back with you after the Oscars, but until then, the balcony is closed.